| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. Happy 22/02/2022 to all who celebrate palindromic, European-style calendar entries! And happy 2/22/22 to my American readers! | | |  | The big idea | | There's still a lot we don't know about Putin's plans and the West's response |  Pro-Ukraine demonstrators display placards during a demonstration in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin on Tuesday. (Photo by JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP via Getty Images) | | | Russian President Vladimir Putin finally pulled the trigger Monday night, ordering his military into two pro-Moscow regions of Ukraine after recognizing them as independent republics, daring the United States and its allies to make good on threats of debilitating retaliatory sanctions. President Biden is expected to announce a new wave of punitive measures today, though it's unclear whether it'll be the full package of "swift and severe" economic and diplomatic sanctions the administration has threatened as a response to an invasion. American partners — Britain, the European Union, Germany — have already announced plans to punish Russia economically, targeting individuals and financial institutions and freezing the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. Moscow has responded by threatening Europe with vastly higher energy prices. There's still a lot we don't know about Putin's full intentions and the West's response. Here are four of my questions about the deepening crisis. | When do the 'swift and severe' sanctions kick in? | | "This is the beginning of an invasion," Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer told CNN this morning. "An invasion is an invasion, and that is what is underway." | | That's pretty clear. But it's not how a senior Biden official put it Monday night. The official declined to say whether Russian troops streaming into eastern Ukraine — if confirmed — would count as a further "invasion" that would trigger U.S. and allied sanctions. | - "Russian troops moving into Donbas would not itself be a new step" because they've been operating in eastern Ukraine since 2014, the official said on a call with reporters, which was held on condition that the official not be named.
- "We're going to take additional sanctions actions tomorrow," the official said. "And if Russia takes further actions, I suspect there will be further responses to those actions."
| | The question of what constitutes an "invasion" isn't a rhetorical game. It's the central justification for the U.S.-led response to Moscow's actions – how far-reaching retaliatory sanctions will be. And Putin's actions have forced the the White House into an uneasy dilemma about whether his actions constitute an invasion. For example, the anonymous official's comments late Monday were at odds with past administration definitions of "invasion." In a Jan. 20 interview with German broadcaster ZDF, Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned: "If a Russian soldier crosses into Ukraine, then we have a profound problem, a clear attack on Ukraine, whether it's one soldier or a thousand soldiers." Biden caused a firestorm on Jan. 20 when he suggested it would be hard to muster a united allied response if Russia limited its actions to a "minor incursion" — an acknowledgment that some partners, like Germany, would have to be won over to a hard-line approach. But he later said Russia would pay if "any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border," triggering a "severe and coordinated economic response" from the West. | How far will America's allies go? | | On Feb. 18, Biden predicted a united front on sanctions against Russia. "There will be some slight differences, but there will be more add-ons than subtractions," he predicted. The United States, Britain, and the European Union are announcing a new wave of sanctions on Tuesday. We'll know a lot more when the Biden administration unveils its own package today — will they go after major Russian financial institutions, after individual oligarchs? And how hard? Overnight, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced his government was taking steps to halt E.U. certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. | | That's a significant step. Biden had repeatedly said the pipeline, which isn't yet operational, would be a casualty of any Russian invasion of Ukraine. But Germany, which gets much of its energy from Russia, had balked. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced sanctions on five Russian banks and three Russian billionaires thought to be tight with Putin, the BBC reported. Johnson called it a "first barrage" and said the U.K. must "steel ourselves for a protracted crisis." And Reuters reported "[t]he European Union is close to agreeing sanctions on Russia that would put politicians and officials on blacklists, ban trading in Russian state bonds, and target imports and exports with separatist entities, senior EU officials said on Tuesday." | How far does Putin want to take this? | | My colleagues Rachel Pannett and Ellen Francis reported on a worrisome development overnight: "Russia said Tuesday that its recognition of separatist areas in eastern Ukraine includes territory now held by Ukrainian forces." "Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia has recognized the independence of rebel-held regions within borders that the separatists originally proclaimed when they broke away from Ukraine in 2014. Because large parts of those regions have since been reclaimed by Ukrainian forces during their eight-year war, Russia's declaration could lead to attempts to expand the breakaway region(s) by force." And that, in turn, raises the prospects of deadly clashes between Russian troops and Ukrainian forces armed by America and its allies over the past few months. | Has Biden prepared the U.S. public enough? | | The president has repeatedly told Americans he will not send U.S. forces to Ukraine, and that he's deploying additional troops to NATO countries on Russia's doorstep. But he's done relatively little to prepare the public for the potential economic aftershocks of imposing sanctions — either due to deliberate retaliation from Russia, a major energy exporter, or as a consequence of a war damaging the heavily interconnected global economy. The most he has said on this subject appears to be on Feb. 18, when he declared "I will not pretend this will be painless," warned of higher fuel prices and promised "to deploy all the tools and authority at our disposal to provide relief at the gas pump." Are Americans ready for the possibility of significant economic disruption? Now that Putin has made his decision, we'll find out. | | |  | What's happening now | | Putin says he does not want the old Soviet empire back, despite sending troops into rebel-held region |  Ukrainian soldiers prepare to take part at the funeral of Ukrainian Army captain killed in eastern Ukraine Anton Sydorov, 35, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Emilio Morenatti/AP) | | | "President Vladimir Putin denied Tuesday that his recognition of separatists' claims to a large swath of Ukraine showed his ambition to re-create an empire," Robyn Dixon reports. "Putin's recognition of large areas now under Ukrainian government control as belonging to the separatists in eastern Ukraine undermined Ukraine's territorial integrity and paved the way for more conflict and a potential invasion." | Military vehicles seen on outskirts of Donetsk | Ukraine may break off diplomatic ties with Russia, president says | | "Ukraine may break off diplomatic relations with Russia after Moscow decided to recognise two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine as independent, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said at a briefing on Tuesday," Reuters's Pavel Polityuk and Natalia Zinets report. "He also urged Ukraine's allies not to wait for a further escalation to impose sanctions, which he said should include shutting down the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 pipeline, awaiting approval to carry Russian gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany." | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | The Texas abortion ban created a 'vigilante' loophole. Both parties are rushing to take advantage. |  Abortion rights supporters rally in October 2021 outside the Texas Capitol in Austin. A state law that bans nearly all abortions after about six weeks allows citizens to sue to enforce it. (Stephen Spillman/AP) | | | "When the U.S. Supreme Court declined in December to temporarily block the Texas law, which established the minimum $10,000 court award, state lawmakers saw a green light to use a new tool: letting citizens sue each other as a way to skirt around constitutionally questionable laws," Kimberly Kindy and Alice Crites report. "Both Democrats and Republicans have embraced the change. Since the Texas law took effect in September, at least 31 copycat laws have been introduced across the country, according to a Washington Post review of legislative and other public records. The laws focus on a wide variety of polarizing issues — including book banning, gun control and transgender athletics." | Clarence and Ginni Thomas's America |  Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas, right, and wife Virginia "Ginni" Thomas arrive for a State Dinner with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington. (Patrick Semansky, AP File) | | | "The Thomases have long posed a unique quandary in Washington. Because Supreme Court justices do not want to be perceived as partisan, they tend to avoid political events and entanglements, and their spouses often keep low profiles. But the Thomases have defied such norms. Since the founding of the nation, no spouse of a sitting Supreme Court justice has been as overt a political activist as Ginni Thomas," Danny Hakim and Jo Becker write for the New York Times Magazine. | American women players settle with US Soccer, ending six-year legal battle | | "U.S. women soccer players reached a landmark agreement with the sport's American governing body to end a six-year legal battle over equal pay, a deal in which they are promised $24 million plus bonuses that match those of the men," the Associated Press's Anne M Peterson and Ronald Blum report. "The U.S. Soccer Federation and the women announced a deal Tuesday that will have players split $22 million, about one-third of what they had sought in damages. The USSF also agreed to establish a fund with $2 million to benefit the players in their post-soccer careers and charitable efforts aimed at growing the sport for women." | | |  | The Biden agenda | | Biden to announce new spending on mineral production to address supply chain challenges |  President Biden speaks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Friday. (Oliver Contreras/Sipa/Bloomberg News) | | | "President Biden plans to host a virtual event Tuesday with California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), among others, to announce new domestic investments in minerals key to production of goods such as computers and household appliances," John Wagner reports. | Agency vacancies drag out White House priorities | Biden has reportedly started interviews for Supreme Court pick | | "U.S. President Joe Biden has started interviews with top candidates to serve on the Supreme Court 'in recent days,' a source familiar with the situation said on Monday," Reuters's Jeff Mason reports. | After BBB stall, Biden administration signals continued commitment to home care | | "Secretary Xavier Becerra, America's top health official, met with leaders in aging, labor and disability to discuss the future of home care funding on Thursday. This meeting was the first of its kind since negotiations over President Joe Biden's $1.8 trillion Build Back Better economic plan stalled in December, indicating that the administration has not given up work on the big promises it made to disabled people, seniors and the people who care for them," the 19th's Sara Luterman reports. | | |  | Child-care disruptions, visualized | | | |  | Hot on the left | | A 2-2 tie on the FTC is empowering Republican obstruction | | The Federal Trade Commission was blocked on Thursday from initiating an investigation into the ways pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) are responsible for higher drug prices. "PBMs work on behalf of health plans, ostensibly to secure discounts from drug companies and reimburse pharmacists for medications. However, their information advantage enables PBMs to skim off the top of every prescription, siphoning funds from pharmacists while ensuring that patients, private insurance, and government-run health plans pay more," the American Prospect's David Dayen writes. | | |  | Hot on the right | | Mitch McConnell hasn't laid out a GOP agenda. So Rick Scott is pursuing his own plan. |  Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) speaks during a Republican news conference about economic Inflation on Capitol Hill on Feb. 16. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) | | | "The Florida Republican senator is devising a conservative blueprint for Republicans to enact should they win Senate and House majorities this fall. Among Scott's priorities: completing the border wall and naming it after former President Donald Trump, declaring 'there are two genders,' ending any reference to ethnicity on government forms and limiting most federal government workers — including members of Congress — to 12 years of service," Politico's Burgess Everett reports. "It's a bold move for the first-term senator and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair. But Scott said the 31-page GOP agenda he's crafted is separate from his work chairing the party's campaign arm, adding that it's 'important to tell people what we're gonna do.' It's a clear break from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has declined to release a GOP agenda heading into the midterms." | | |  | Today in Washington | | | At 1 p.m., Biden will give an update on Russia and Ukraine. He's "expected to speak about sanctions in response to Russia's deployment of troops into two pro-Russian separatist regions of Ukraine," John Wagner reports. Biden will host a virtual event on mineral supply chains, clean energy manufacturing and creating jobs at 3:30 p.m. with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, national climate adviser Gina McCarthy, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. | | |  | In closing | | Happy Tuesday, 2-22-2022 from The Daily 202! | | By now, you've heard about today's once-in-a-lifetime date. Maybe you even have an alarm set for 2:22 p.m. — or 22:22 if you're a fan of military time. But what does all of this mean? Anything you want it two, Maura Judkis explains. "As weirdness goes in these very weird times, Feb. 22 might not rate much more than a blip, but it does spark curious notions and a line of existential inquiry: Does it mean everything, or anything, or nothing at all? What is time, anyway, other than an arbitrary human construct that happened to, in this instance, align in a way that's appealing to the pattern-recognition parts of our brains? Is it the ultimate Taco Tuesday?" | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
0 Comments:
Post a Comment