| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. Via the Associated Press: On this day in 1999, NATO broadened its attacks on Yugoslavia to target Serb military forces in Kosovo in a fifth straight night of airstrikes. | | |  | The big idea | | Why Biden isn't getting a bump in the polls from Ukraine |  President Biden speaks outside the Royal Castle about the Russian war in Ukraine on March 26 in Warsaw, Poland. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) | | | A new NBC News poll reminds us of three reasons President Biden shouldn't expect a significant job approval ratings bump from his response to Russia's war in Ukraine. | - Americans say the economy is their top issue, and aren't happy with his stewardship.
- American attitudes about what to do in Ukraine are, honestly, pretty pessimistic.
- The president has disappointed key elements of his political base.
| | Before digging into the details, let's take a step back. We owe discussions of the "rally-'round-the-flag" effect on American presidencies to political scientist John Mueller, whose 1970 treatise "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson" explored the impact of world affairs on the commander in chief's popularity at home. To have an impact, Mueller said, a crisis must be international in nature, involve the United States and the president directly, and it must be "specific, dramatic, and sharply focused." Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems to fit the definition. It's obviously an international crisis. Biden has taken a very active personal leadership role, rallying U.S. and allied support for Kyiv and condemnation of Moscow since the dramatic Feb. 24 start of the war. | | Now, back to the poll. Asked what is the most important issue facing the country, Americans point to their pocketbooks. And it's not close: 21 percent cited the rising cost of living, another 16 percent said jobs and the economy. Just 14 percent pointed to Russia's war in Ukraine. Biden's top priority should be reducing inflation and improving the economy, according to 68 percent of respondents. Just 29 percent cited the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Sixty-two percent of respondents said their family income is falling behind the cost of living. How many Americans approve of Biden's handling of their top issue, the economy? Thirty-three percent. Then there's the question of what Americans want, expect and fear about Ukraine. From NBC's Mark Murray: "Eighty-three percent said they're concerned about the war increasing the cost of goods and services like gasoline; 82 percent said they're concerned that the war will involve nuclear weapons; and 74 percent said they're concerned the U.S. will send American combat troops to fight in Ukraine." (From the same poll: Nearly 80 percent of Americans agree with Biden's moves to ban Russian oil imports, even if it means higher gas prices.) "A combined 57 percent of respondents said they believe the United States is already at war with Russia (16 percent), or that it will be within the next year (41 percent)." And Americans are uneasy with Biden's handling of Ukraine, NBC found. Twelve percent say they have a "great deal" of confidence in his ability to manage the crisis. Another 16 percent say they have "quite a bit" of confidence. | | But 71 percent say they either have "just some" confidence (27 percent) or "very little" (44 percent). It's not just a GOP phenomenon: 36 percent of Democrats say they have "just some" confidence, and another seven percent say "very little." Still, GOP hostility to Biden is a factor: Five percent approve of the job he's doing, according to the latest Gallup poll. And 38 percent of independents agree. That makes Biden's relationship to his base that much more important, especially going into midterm elections that historically attract each party's die-hards. And there, the president has lost ground, NBC found: "The erosion in Biden's approval rating has been across the board among key demographic groups, including Black respondents (from 64 percent approve in January to 62 percent now), women (from 51 percent approve to 44 percent), Latinos (from 48 percent to 39 percent) and independents (36 percent to 32 percent)." I wrote about his problem with progressives late last year. Ukraine is unlikely to reverse his fortunes. Beyond whether Biden can expect a rallying effect, there's the question of just how beneficial it would be. President Barack Obama got a six-point bounce from the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. But it subsided within weeks. President George W. Bush saw his job approval jump 35 points, and ultimately reach 90 percent, the highest ever recorded, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The Gallup graph here tells the rest of the story: a steady slide, with a brief surge when the United States deposed Iraq's Saddam Hussein. But most interesting is Bush's father, President George H.W. Bush, who showed how rallying effects can be strong and sudden … then fade to political irrelevance. The elder Bush had reached 89 percent job approval in March 1991, the highest ever recorded at the time, after the United States and its allies won the first Gulf War. But the perception he was out of touch with Americans' worries about the economy ultimately made him a one-term president. But for real perspective, let's look at a Democratic president, leading a military response in Eastern Europe, facing the U.S. public's concerns that the conflict (and America's role in it) could expand. Here's Jonathan Weisman, then of the Baltimore Sun, writing about President Bill Clinton in late April 1999: "President Clinton's once-unshakable job approval ratings are beginning to slide, pulled down by the public's concerns about the financial and human costs of the air war in Yugoslavia and by rising doubts that NATO bombing alone will achieve peace." | | |  | What's happening now | | Biden budget pivots to deficit concerns while boosting military, domestic programs |  Biden disembarks the Air Force One as he arrives at Chopin Airport in Warsaw, Poland, on Friday. (Radek Pietruszka/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock) | | | "President Biden unveiled a $5.8 trillion budget plan on Monday that reflects a major administration pivot to rein in future borrowing, introducing a proposal that would reduce the national deficit by roughly $1 trillion over 10 years," Jeff Stein reports. Reducing the deficit (eventually): "While the debt would continue to grow even if all of the administration's proposals are enacted, the White House document reflects a major new focus on fiscal prudence. Last year, the White House budget would have increased the nation's deficits over 10 years by almost $1.4 trillion. By contrast, the White House's budget this year would reduce the annual deficit by more than $100 billion per year after 2029." | Jan. 6 Committee to seek interview with Ginni Thomas | | "The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection will seek an interview with Virginia Thomas, a conservative activist and wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, according a source familiar with the investigation," Jacqueline Alemany and Amy B Wang report. | Zelensky offers diplomatic opening as peace talks with Russia to resume in Turkey | | "Turkey — Ukrainian and Russian delegations are arriving in Istanbul for another round of in-person talks — putting NATO member Turkey, which has ties to both Kyiv and Moscow, in the spotlight as an intermediary in the deadly conflict grinding into its second month," Annabelle Timsit, Miriam Berger, Rachel Pannett and Julian Mark report. More key updates: | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | Inside the plan to create an abortion refuge for a post-Roe era |  Members of the antiabortion group 40 Days for Life protest outside the Planned Parenthood clinic in Fairview Heights, Ill., on March 8. (Neeta Satam for The Washington Post) | | | "The emerging red-blue abortion map has prompted a new level of tactical maneuvering — with abortion providers envisioning a proliferation of clinics a stone's throw from red-state territory and conservative lawmakers exploring measures to prevent abortion patients from crossing state lines for care," Caroline Kitchener reports. Where it's already happening: "Nowhere is this dynamic more pronounced than southern Illinois, where Planned Parenthood and the Hope Clinic for Women, each located just over the Mississippi River a few miles from the Missouri state line, have been serving thousands of out-of-state patients for years as Missouri residents have sought to avoid the more restrictive laws enacted by their conservative state legislature." | How a Google billionaire helped pay for Biden's science office |  Eric E. Schmidt, co-founder of Schmidt Futures, speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 23, 2021, during a hearing on emerging technologies and their impact on national security. (Susan Walsh/AP) | | | "A foundation controlled by Eric Schmidt, the multi-billionaire former CEO of Google, has played an extraordinary, albeit private, role in shaping the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy over the past year," Politico's Alex Thompson reports. How far Schmidt's reach extends: | - "More than a dozen officials in the 140-person White House office have been associates of Schmidt's, including some current and former Schmidt employees."
- "Schmidt maintained a close relationship with the president's former science adviser, Eric Lander, and other Biden appointees."
- "His charity arm, Schmidt Futures, indirectly paid the salaries of two science-office employees, including, for six weeks, that of the current chief of staff, Marc Aidinoff, who is now one of the most senior officials in the office following Lander's resignation in February."
- "The chief innovation officer at Schmidt Futures, OSTP alum Tom Kalil, also remained on Schmidt's payroll while working as an unpaid consultant at the science office for four months last year until he left the post following ethics complaints."
| | |  | The Biden agenda | |  President Biden delivers a speech at the Royal Castle in Warsaw on Saturday. (Omar Marques/Getty Images) | | President Biden unveils new minimum tax on billionaires in budget | | "The White House [unveiled] a new minimum tax targeting billionaires as part of its 2023 budget Monday, proposing a tax on the richest 700 Americans for the first time," Jeff Stein reports. | Biden aims to boost military and social spending | Biden to ask Congress to fund the police | | "The budget proposal [included] $20.6 billion for the next fiscal year for Department of Justice discretionary spending on federal law enforcement, crime prevention and intervention. That's $2 billion more than the $18.6 billion enacted for the current fiscal year," Axios's Hans Nichols reports. | Re: Putin 'cannot remain in power' | Biden's Putin remark pushes U.S.-Russia relations closer to collapse | | "Samuel Charap, a Russia expert at Rand Corp., said the administration's attempts to walk back the suggestion of a U.S. goal of regime change would do little to alter views in Moscow because Putin has long believed the United States is out to replace him and presidential statements have traditionally been seen as official policy," Missy Ryan reports. | Biden's remark on Putin stirs anxiety among Western allies | Biden seeks to temper remark on Putin | | "President Joe Biden sought to clarify his call for the removal of Vladimir Putin, saying he wasn't seeking regime change after European allies raised concern and critics said he was further inflaming tension with Russia," Bloomberg's Tony Czuczka reports. | Biden finds no respite at home after returning from Europe | | |  | Abortion access in a post-Roe era, visualized | | | "Abortion providers in blue-state Illinois are laying the groundwork for an influx of patients from states poised to ban abortion if the Supreme Court overturns its landmark precedent." The two clinics, "Planned Parenthood and the Hope Clinic for Women, each located just over the Mississippi River a few miles from the Missouri state line, have been serving thousands of out-of-state patients for years as Missouri residents have sought to avoid the more restrictive laws enacted by their conservative state legislature," our colleague Caroline Kitchener reports. | | |  | Hot on the left | | The Supreme Court's problems go beyond Ginni Thomas | | The Ginni Thomas text controversy is "virtually the dictionary definition of judicial corruption," the American Prospect's Ryan Cooper writes. "But it's only the beginning of the legitimacy problems at the Supreme Court—an institution which has de facto claimed the power to dominate both Congress and the president, is increasingly aggressive about exercising it, yet has a small and rapidly shrinking fig leaf of justification for doing so." The argument: "With the increasing partisanship of Court nominations, and the close balance of power between liberals and conservatives, this means that the Supreme Court effectively sits outside of any kind of democratic accountability." | | |  | Hot on the right | | Rumble, the right's go-to video site, has a lofty goal: Building a 'new internet' | | Rumble's chief executive Chris Pavlovski "has made clear in streamed remarks to Rumble creators and to others that his ambitions are far greater than increasing traffic to his website and app. With investments from like-minded critics of Big Tech like Mr. Thiel, Mr. Pavlovski has described a vision for building a 'new internet' — a kind of alt-web that is entirely distinct from the dominant players in the industry," the NYT's Jeremy W. Peters reports. "Rumble has already built out its own cloud service infrastructure and video streaming capacity, offering it and its partners greater independence from the Amazons and Microsofts of the internet — and the assurance that they can't be shut down if one of those providers decides to pull the plug over objectionable content." | | |  | Today in Washington | | | Biden will speak about his 2023 budget at 2:45 p.m. Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young will also speak. | | |  | In closing | | Meet the man who interrupted the D.C. trucker convoy — on two wheels | | "I heard the stories of the traffic on the Beltway breaking up the convoy," biker Dan Adler said, "and I thought I, too, could break up the convoy." "Adler, a father of two school-aged children, brought it to a crawl — and, for his efforts, became known across the Internet by a moniker somehow heroic and commonplace at once: 'Bike Man,'" Ellie Silverman reports. | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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