| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. On this day in 1993, retired Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall died in Bethesda, Md. He was 84. | | |  | The big idea | | Four ways inflation is a political problem for Biden |  President Biden is tackling inflation as both an economic and political problem. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) | | | U.S. inflation roared last year to its highest level in 40 years, spurred on by busted supply chains and hunger for consumer goods and construction materials. It also created a severe political problem for President Biden just as his party is headed for its first test under him with voters in this year's midterm elections. By now, most of you have heard this. So why is this economic phenomenon such a political headache for the White House, which has limited tools for getting it under control? Let's look at a list of four reasons: It's smothering wage growth; it's a global problem; it's a local problem; and it's a "now" problem. First, it's smothering wage growth, which would otherwise be a Biden success story. Over the weekend, my colleague Abha Bhattarai reported: "After years of barely budging, wage growth is finally at its highest level in decades. A global pandemic, combined with swift government stimulus and unexpected labor shortages, have put workers in the driver's seat, giving them the kind of negotiating power they had never imagined." "But in an unexpected twist, the same strong economic recovery that is emboldening workers is also driving up inflation, leaving most Americans with less spending power than they had a year ago." "Although average hourly wages rose 4.7 percent last year, overall wages fell 2.4 percent on average for all workers, when adjusted for inflation, according to the Labor Department." | | (The Bureau of Labor Statistics also noted "[t]he change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek resulted in a 2.3-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.") Abha had great first-person testimonials, as well as big-picture data: "Gas prices are up 50 percent from a year ago, while the price of meat, fish and eggs is up nearly 13 percent, according to the U.S. consumer price index." "We need to get inflation under control," Biden said at his news conference last week. "It's not going to be easy, but I think we can get it done. But it's going to be painful for a lot of people in the meantime." Second, it's a global problem (that leaders can't control). There are some steps Biden has promised to combat inflation: Try to boost supplies of gas, tackle the microchip shortage delaying delivery of consumer goods and driving up the price of cars, fix the supply chain and so on. But on balance, the Federal Reserve has the best tools for battling soaring prices. But inflation in 2022 isn't just an American problem. It's a global one. My colleague David J. Lynch reported over the weekend: "In the European Union, prices are rising faster than at any time since the euro currency was introduced. The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom hit 5.4 percent in December, the highest figure there in nearly 30 years. Canada's consumer prices are rising twice as fast as before the pandemic." "Even in Japan, where prices have been depressed almost continuously since the collapse of the late 1980s real estate bubble, the central bank in recent days revised upward its assessment of inflation risks for the first time in eight years. Among major economies, only China has a lower inflation rate today than in early 2020." And that speaks to how universal and intractable the problem is. Third, it's a local problem (that Biden can't control). | | This is a bit of a hobby horse for The Daily 202 but, as I have written before, "no White House is perfectly equipped to keep track of, of, never mind push back against, every local TV affiliate or newspaper piece that raises hackles at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave." Inflation isn't some distant problem only made real by global news media. It's what Americans experience at the gas pump and grocery store, on the car lot and the construction site. Fourth, it's a "now" problem. It's rare that I recommend an editorial, and even rarer an editorial by the competition, but this New York Times dissection of Biden's economic record to date is worth the click. What stood out was this passage, which gets at the nature of Biden's political problem with inflation. "A lot of pain was averted, but it's hard to feel gratitude for things that didn't happen. The economic outlook is strong, but it's hard to feel gratitude for things that haven't happened yet. Right now, the pain of inflation is front and center for most." Biden has been pushing his Build Back Better legislation as part of the solution — but that package has stalled in Congress. Even if passed, not all of its provisions to help Americans manage rising costs would immediately take effect. And as the Times notes, inflation is a "now" problem, and "later" solutions don't help. | | |  | What's happening now | | NATO strengthens east European flank as Russia continues to deny intent to invade Ukraine |  A service member of the Ukrainian armed forces walks at combat positions near the line of separation from Russian-backed rebels near Horlivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine. (Anna Kudriavtseva/Reuters) | | | "Having engineered the crisis by surrounding Ukraine with forces from the north, east and south, Moscow is now citing the Western response as evidence to support its narrative that Russia is the target, not the instigator, of aggression." | Seven school boards sue to stop Gov. Youngkin's mask-optional order on the day it takes effect | | "The school boards, led by Fairfax County Public Schools, whose 180,000 students make it Virginia's biggest system, filed suit Monday morning in Arlington Circuit Court. The suit asks for an immediate injunction barring enforcement of Youngkin's order, which sought to leave masking decisions to parents, contravening federal health guidance and the masking mandates that the vast majority of Virginia school districts have maintained throughout the pandemic," Hannah Natanson reports. | Taiwan reports largest Chinese air force incursion of the year | | "Taiwan on Sunday reported the largest incursion since October by China's air force in its air defence zone, with the island's defence ministry saying Taiwanese fighters scrambled to warn away 39 aircraft in the latest uptick in tensions," Reuters reports. | Google deceived consumers about how it profits from their location data, attorneys general allege in lawsuits | | "The complaints also allege the company has deployed 'dark patterns,' or design tricks that can subtly influence users' decisions in ways that are advantageous for a business. The lawsuits say Google has designed its products to repeatedly nudge or pressure people to provide more and more location data, 'inadvertently or out of frustration.' The suits allege this violates various state and D.C. consumer protection laws," Cat Zakrzewski reports. | U.S. intervenes to repel air attack on UAE | Mutinous soldiers detain president of Burkina Faso in apparent coup d'etat | | "Mutinous soldiers have detained the president of Burkina Faso after gunfire erupted at military bases across the West African nation in an apparent coup d'etat, making him the third head of state overthrown in this region in the past eight months, according to a Western official and an army officer in the country," Danielle Paquette reports. | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | How Trump's flirtation with an anti-insurrection law inspired Jan. 6 insurrection |  Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, a citizen militia group, center, speaks during a rally outside the White House in Washington, on June 25, 2017. (Susan Walsh/AP) | | | "Invoking the Insurrection Act was an idea sparked in conservative circles that spring as a means of subduing social justice protests and related rioting, a goal Trump seemed to embrace when he called for state leaders to 'dominate' their streets. By the end of the year, it had become a rallying cry to cancel the results of a presidential election. Now, private and public discussions of the law stand as key evidence in the cases against the Oath Keepers," Devlin Barrett and Spencer S. Hsu report. | Federal government's coronavirus struggle: When and how to bring employees back to the office | | "Two months after the Biden administration's deadline for federal workers to be vaccinated against the coronavirus so they could begin returning to the office, the government's plan to resume normal operations remains muddled," Lisa Rein, Ian Duncan and Alex Horton report. "About half the workforce is still working from home nearly two years into the public health crisis, after soaring cases of the omicron variant prompted agencies to scrap return-to-office plans intended to kick in after the new year. Most employees have no idea when they'll be back." | Social Security opens to surviving same-sex partners who could not marry | | "The Social Security Administration now allows gay men and lesbians to receive survivor's benefits if they can show that they were in a committed relationship and would have married had that been possible. The change could mean greater economic protection for a population with higher poverty rates than American adults overall," the New York Times's Paula Span reports. "Almost six million of the nation's 65 million Social Security beneficiaries receive survivor's benefits, including children. 'Their whole purpose is to care for the survivors who lose their romantic and economic partners, a huge financial hardship,' said Karen Loewy, senior counsel at Lambda Legal, which brought the lawsuits along with local law firms." | The Senate map is already flush with cash — and it's only January | | "Together, Senate candidates from both parties have already bought $131 million worth of television advertisements. That's more than double what was spent on Senate races at this point in 2020 or 2018, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from AdImpact, an ad tracking service," Politico's Natalie Allison reports. "It's a sign of the fierce trench warfare ahead in an election year where the loss of a single seat could cost Democrats their Senate majority. But it's also a reflection of a map that features open seats in some of the most competitive states in the nation, and a glut of Republican self-funders who are digging deep into their own pockets to finance their campaigns." | | |  | The rise of omicron | | U.S. cases 'going in the right direction,' Fauci says |  Anthony S. Fauci, the nation's top infectious-disease expert, on Jan. 11, 2022. (Greg Nash/The Hill/Bloomberg News) | | | "Pointing to other countries that have experienced sharp drops in cases after a surge of infections from the omicron variant, Fauci, speaking on ABC's 'This Week,' said that things are looking good.' Still, he cautioned that the virus 'has certainly surprised us in the past' and that cases are still rising in the South and West, where omicron outbreaks started later than in the Northeast," Bryan Pietsch and Annabelle Timsit report. | | |  | The Biden agenda | | U.S. threatens use of novel export control on Russia |  Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Governor of the Kamchatka Territory at the Kremlin in Moscow on Monday. (Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/AFP) | | | "The Biden administration is threatening to use a novel export control to damage strategic Russian industries, from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to civilian aerospace, if Moscow invades Ukraine, administration officials say," Ellen Nakashima and Jeanne Whalen report. "The administration may also decide to apply the control more broadly in a way that would potentially deprive Russian citizens of some smartphones, tablets and video game consoles, said the officials." | Will Biden deploy thousands of troops to Eastern Europe and the Baltics? | | "The move would signal a major pivot for the Biden administration, which up until recently was taking a restrained stance on Ukraine, out of fear of provoking Russia into invading. But as President Vladimir V. Putin has ramped up his threatening actions toward Ukraine, and talks between American and Russian officials have failed to discourage him, the administration is now moving away from its do-not-provoke strategy," the New York Times's Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt report. | Biden is getting mixed reviews from Black Democrats in South Carolina | | "One year into his presidency, Biden is hoping he can maintain the support of Black voters, even as his failure to deliver on voting rights legislation and other issues has left some loyalists dispirited. Of the many challenges he confronts as he enters his second year, few are as important as retaining the strong backing from his party's base," the AP's Meg Kinnard and Tom Foreman Jr. report. | Biden has nominated 8 Black women to appellate courts | | "President Joe Biden could potentially double the number of Black women ever confirmed to federal appellate courts, a key stepping stone to the U.S. Supreme Court," the 19th's Candice Norwood reports. | | |  | How N95 masks work, visualized | | | "When worn properly, N95s can filter out at least 95 percent of particles in the air, including the virus that causes covid-19. Only pricey air-purifying respirators or hazmat suits offer better protection," Aaron Steckelberg and Bonnie Berkowitz explain. | | |  | Hot on the left | | Redistricting might not be so dire for Democrats after all | | "Democrats braced for disaster when state legislatures began redrawing congressional maps, fearing that Republican dominance of statehouses would tilt power away from them for the next decade," the AP's Nicholas Riccardi and Bobby Caina Calvan report. "But as the redistricting process reaches its final stages, that anxiety is beginning to ease. For Democrats, the worst case scenario of losing well over a dozen seats in the U.S. House appears unlikely to happen." | | |  | Hot on the right | | What's on the horizon for Tom Emmer? He won't say. | | "Tom Emmer has the hottest political hand in the House GOP right now. And if he can win a sizable majority this fall, he'll have even more chips to cash in," Politico's Olivia Beavers reports. "Halfway through his second cycle as House Republicans' campaign chief, Emmer is managing to pull off a remarkable feat in the modern GOP: Even as it fissures over Donald Trump's checkered legacy, Emmer is popular among its disparate wings. From leadership to conservatives to pro-impeachment centrists, all corners of the party have words of praise for the silver-haired Minnesotan." | | |  | Today in Washington | | | Biden will meet with members of his administration on "efforts to lower prices for working families" at 5 p.m. | | |  | In closing | | On SNL, Trump tries his hand at Wordle | | As it turns out, Wordle is actually the perfect vehicle for a freewheeling, stream-of-consciousness Trump rant. | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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