| Democrats are happy today, for a change. Justice Stephen Breyer, a reliable liberal vote on the Supreme Court, is going to retire soon, probably this summer. That means Democrats will get to pick his replacement — and they might not need a single Republican vote to do it.  Justice Stephen G. Breyer in 2000. (Nancy Andrews/The Washington Post) | But they'll need a lot of unity within the Democratic Party. President Biden gets to pick this person, and he'll probably need all 50 Senate Democrats to approve. That includes Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who have had no problem of late bucking their party on big issues. They've been quiet about Supreme Court justices, but they've also supported all of Biden's other judicial picks. But replacing Breyer won't solve Democrats' Supreme Court problem The court will still lean conservative, with six conservative justices to three liberal justices. This is a court that is willing to hear from and be receptive to conservative arguments on abortion and affirmative action and climate change. Timing was everything for this. It's up to Supreme Court justices to decide when they retire. Breyer is 83 and was the likeliest justice to retire. He was under immense pressure from liberals to do it before the end of the year, before Republicans possibly take back the Senate. (He's acknowledged thinking about this: "I don't think any member of the court is living in Pluto or something," he's said.) In other words, this was a relief to Democrats, but it still doesn't solve their problem of having a minority of liberal justices on the court for years to come. As The Post's Aaron Blake noted, court watchers expect there to be fewer and fewer openings on the court as younger and younger justices get appointed. What happens to Roe v. Wade with this change on the Supreme Court? In the short term, not much. Breyer will still be on the court for an upcoming decision on a Mississippi abortion restriction, and he'll probably be a solid no on rolling back abortion rights. But again, with that 6-to-3 tilt, there's not much more he can do other than register his objections. The ruling, expected from the justices this summer, could reshape abortion laws in the United States. And it is expected to at least chip away at Roe v. Wade. There is no federal law on abortion rights, but nearly 50 years ago, in Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court affirmed the right to an abortion up until the fetus can live outside the womb, or about 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy. Conservatives on the court signaled recently they are willing to uphold all or part of a Mississippi law banning abortion at 15 weeks. In the coming years, we can expect conservative states to keep trying to chip away at abortion protections by passing laws that pique the court's interest. And Breyer's successor will play a role in those decisions. Biden has promised to nominate a Black woman  Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is seen as a possible court pick. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters) | He made this promise on the campaign trail, which is not something presidential candidates normally just come out and say. It narrows who they can choose. Court watchers I've talked to say that one person they're all assuming gets a serious look is Ketanji Brown Jackson. She is a federal judge who actually clerked for Breyer, and last year she got confirmed in the Senate to be on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, which is a powerful court often considered as the Supreme Court-in-waiting bench. Here are more women on the short list. One thing to know about Breyer Breyer has been outspoken of late about liberal policies — he wrote a lot of the court's abortion decisions over the years, and he also has opposed the death penalty — but he also has a reputation as a pragmatic justice. "He has this public persona that he has cultivated of being an institutionalist, and he is widely accepted as a pragmatist and a liberal," said Lisa Soronen, executive director of the State and Local Legal Center, which supports states and local governments in cases before the Supreme Court. "So people aren't going to see his leaving the same way as, say, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. She was a feminist hero. He is more a sensible guy with a liberal streak." In that sense, Breyer's retirement and Biden's replacement could change the tenor on the liberal wing of the court, at least. | 
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